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कर्नाटक विधानसभा चुनावों के नतीजों में कांग्रेस बढ़त बनाए हुई है. बीजेपी अभी पीछे है, अगर कर्नाटक में कमल नहीं खिला तो 2024 का लोकसभा चुनाव बीजेपी के लिए बड़ा चैलैंज बन जाएगा. सही सुना आपने नमस्कार मैं हूं आपके साथ रिशु चौधरी कर्नाटक विधानसभा चुनाव के बाद वोटों की गिनती जारी है. रेस में कांग्रेस आगे चल रही है. रुझानों से ये साफ हो गया है कि कर्नाटक में कांग्रेस बड़ी पार्टी बन कर उभर रही है. खबर लिखे जाने तक एबीपी न्यूज में चल रहे रुझान में कांग्रेस को 128 बीजेपी को 68 और जेडीएस के खाते में 22 सीटें जाती दिखाई दे रही हैं. बीजेपी अगर चुनाव हारती है तो साल 2024 के लोकसभा चुनाव में पार्टी की सीटें कर्नाटक में घट सकती हैं. 2019 लोकसभा चुनाव मे राज्य की 28 सीटों में से बीजेपी ने 25 और उसके समर्थित निर्दलीय प्रत्याशी ने एक सीट जीती थी जबकि कांग्रेस-जेडीएस को एक-एक सीट मिली थी. इस बार कर्नाटक में बीजेपी की हार होती है तो पार्टी के लिए सूबे में 2019 के नतीजे दोहरा पाना मुश्किल होगा और कांग्रेस की सीटें बढ़ सकती हैं. बता दें कि दक्षिण भारत के राज्यों में कर्नाटक को बीजेपी के लिए सबसे मजबूत राज्य माना जाता है. यहां पर बीजेपी पहले भी कई बार सरकार बना चुकी है और अभी भी राज्य की सत्ता में है. अगले साल 2024 लोकसभा चुनाव होने वाले हैं, ऐसे में अगर बीजेपी कर्नाटक विधानसभा चुनाव हार जाती है तो उसके लिए दक्षिण भारत के अन्य राज्य- तेलंगाना, तमिलनाडु, केरल और आंध्र प्रदेश में जीत हासिल करना बड़ी चुनौती होगी, जिसका सीधा असर 2024 लोकसभा चुनाव पर पड़ सकता है. दक्षिण भारत के कर्नाटक, तमिलनाडु, केरल, तेलंगाना, आंध्र प्रदेश और पुड्डुचेरी में मिलाकर लोकसभा की कुल 130 सीटें हैं, जिनमें से बीजेपी के पास फिलहाल 29 सीटें ही हैं. इसमें से भी 25 सीटें उसे अकेले कर्नाटक से ही मिली है. तेलंगाना से बीजेपी के पास चार सांसद है. साफ है कि बीजेपी की कर्नाटक में हार से दक्षिण भारत के अन्य राज्यों में खाता खोलना मुशकिल हो जाएगा.कर्नाटक के साथ ही पश्चिम बंगाल, बिहार, झारखंड, महाराष्ट्र में भी बीजेपी की सीटें घट सकती हैं. इन राज्यों में हो रहे सीटों के नुकसान की भरपाई के लिए बीजेपी को नए राज्य तलाशने होंगे जो सबसे बड़ी चुनौती होगी.
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